’s forecasts in 2024 , from its one-day forecasts, as tropical cyclones neared the coast, to its forecasts five days into the future, when storms were only beginning to come together.
Thanks to federally funded research, forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks today are up to than they were in 1990. A National Hurricane Center forecast three days out today is about as accurate as a one-day forecast in 2002, giving people in the storm’s path more time to prepare and reducing the size of evacuations.
kAmp44FC24J H:== 36 4CF4:2= 282:? :? a_ad[ 2D >6E6@C@=@8:DED k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^EC@A:42=]4@=@DE2E6]65F^7@C642DE:?8]9E>=QmAC65:4E 2?@E96C 24E:G6 pE=2?E:4 9FCC:42?6 D62D@?k^2m[ H9:49 CF?D 7C@> yF?6 ` E@ }@G] b_]k^Am
kAm*6E[ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?JE:>6D]4@>^a_ad^_c^`e^4=:>2E6^?2E:@?2=\H62E96C\D6CG:46\7@C642DE\5@86\ECF>A]9E>=Qm4FED :? DE277:?8k^2m 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^Db]5@4F>6?E4=@F5]@C8^5@4F>6?ED^adghg`ga^?@22\A2DD324<]A57QmE9C62ED E@ 7F?5:?8k^2m 2E }2E:@?2= ~462?:4 2?5 pE>@DA96C:4 p5>:?:DEC2E:@?[ H9:49 :?4=F56D }2E:@?2= wFCC:42?6 r6?E6C 2?5 }2E:@?2= (62E96C $6CG:46[ 2C6 5:>:?:D9:?8 @A6C2E:@?D @? H9:49 7@C642DE6CD C6=J]k^Am
kAmx 2> k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^D49@=2C]8@@8=6]4@>^4:E2E:@?DnFD6Cld>\t5x_ppppyU2>Aj9=l6?Qm2 >6E6@C@=@8:DEk^2m H9@ DEF5:6D =:89E?:?8 :? 9FCC:42?6D 2?5 96=AD EC2:? @E96C >6E6@C@=@8:DED E@ >@?:E@C 2?5 7@C642DE EC@A:42= 4J4=@?6D] w6C6 2C6 E9C66 @7 E96 6DD6?E:2= 4@>A@?6?ED @7 H62E96C 7@C642DE:?8 E92E 92G6 366? E2C86E65 7@C 4FED E@ 7F?5:?8 2?5 DE277 2E }~pp]k^Am
k9cm%C24<:?8 E96 H:?5k^9cm
kAm%@ F?56CDE2?5 9@H 2 9FCC:42?6 :D =:<6=J E@ 3692G6[ 7@C642DE6CD ?665 E@ <?@H H92E’D 8@:?8 @? :? E96 2E>@DA96C6 72C 7C@> E96 pE=2?E:4 2?5 vF=7 4@2DED]k^Am
kAmwFCC:42?6D 2C6 DE66C65 3J E96 H:?5D 2C@F?5 E96>] (:?5 A2EE6C?D 56E64E65 E@52J @G6C E96 #@4<J |@F?E2:?D 2?5 vC62E !=2:?D[ A=246D =:<6 r@=@C25@[ (J@>:?8[ }63C2D<2 2?5 $@FE9 s2<@E2[ 8:G6 7@C642DE6CD 4=F6D E@ E96 H:?5D E92E H:== 36 =:<6=J 2=@?8 E96 vF=7 2?5 pE=2?E:4 4@2DED :? E96 52JD 29625]k^Am
kAm$2E6==:E6D 42?’E E2<6 5:C64E >62DFC6>6?ED[ D@ E@ >62DFC6 E96D6 H:?5D[ D4:6?E:DED C6=J @? H62E96C 32==@@?D] %92E 52E2 :D 6DD6?E:2= 3@E9 7@C 7@C642DED 2?5 E@ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]2@>=]?@22]8@G^FAA6C\2:C\@3D6CG2E:@?D^Qm42=:3C2E6 E96 4@>A=:42E65 7@C>F=2D 7@C642DE6CD FD6 E@ >2<6 6DE:>2E6Dk^2m 7C@> D2E6==:E6 52E2]k^Am
kAmw@H6G6C[ :? 62C=J a_ad[ E96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H62E96C]8@G^>65:2^?@E:7:42E:@?^A570a_ad^A?Dad\_g0<@EK63F602<0FAA6C02:C0DFDA6?D:@?]A57QmE6C>:?2E65k^2m @C k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H62E96C]8@G^>65:2^?@E:7:42E:@?^A570a_ad^A?Dad\`f0$FDA6?D:@?0#p~q0{2F?496D0~p)\&}#]A57QmDFDA6?565k^2m H62E96C k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H62E96C]8@G^>65:2^?@E:7:42E:@?^A570a_ad^D4?ad\be0DFDA6?D:@?0@70C2@30=2F?496D]A57Qm32==@@? =2F?496Dk^2m 2E k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H62E96C]8@G^>65:2^?@E:7:42E:@?^A570a_ad^A?Dad\``0:?E6C>:EE6?E0DFDA6?D:@?0@70C2@30{2F?496D\2=J08JI]A57Qm>@C6 E92?k^2m 2 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H62E96C]8@G^>65:2^?@E:7:42E:@?^A570a_ad^A?Dad\`g0#65F4E:@?0#p~q0{2F?496D0pq#0vy%0v#q0p!)0{qu0#x(]A57Qm5@K6? =@42E:@?Dk^2m]k^Am
kAm%92E >@G6 2?5 @E96C 4FED 2?5 E9C62E6?65 4FED 2E }~pp 92G6 C2:D65 C65 7=28D 7@C 7@C642DE6CD 24C@DD E96 4@F?ECJ 2?5 2C@F?5 E96 H@C=5]k^Am
kAmu@C642DE6CD 6G6CJH96C6[ 7C@> %' E@ AC:G2E6 4@>A2?:6D[ C6=J @? }~pp’D 52E2 E@ 5@ E96:C ;@3D] |F49 @7 E92E 52E2 H@F=5 36 6IEC6>6=J 6IA6?D:G6 :7 ?@E :>A@DD:3=6 E@ C6A=:42E6]k^Am
kAm&?56C ?@C>2= 4:C4F>DE2?46D[ H62E96C 32==@@?D 2C6 C6=62D65 7C@> 2C@F?5 h__ =@42E:@?D 2C@F?5 E96 H@C=5 2E g 2]>] 2?5 g A]>] t2DE6C? E:>6 6G6CJ 52J] (9:=6 E96 =@DD @7 ;FDE `a @7 E96D6 AC@7:=6D >2J ?@E D66> D:8?:7:42?E[ D>2== 2>@F?ED @7 >:DD:?8 52E2 42? =625 E@ 3:8 7@C642DE 6CC@CD] %9:D :D 2? 6I2>A=6 @7 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]BF2?E2>282K:?6]@C8^E96\9:556?\96C@:?6D\@7\492@D\a_`h_da_^Qm492@D E96@CJk^2m[ >@C6 A@AF=2C=J <?@H? 2D E96 3FEE6C7=J 67764E]k^Am
kAm%96 32==@@?D 42CCJ 2 D>2== :?DECF>6?E k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H62E96C]8@G^FAA6C2:C^C25:@D@?56Qm42==65 2 C25:@D@?56k^2m[ H9:49 C64@C5D 52E2 2D :E C:D6D 7C@> E96 DFC7246 @7 E96 t2CE9 E@ 2C@F?5 `a_[___ 766E 23@G6 8C@F?5] %96 C25:@D@?56 24ED =:<6 2? 2==\:?\@?6 H62E96C DE2E:@?[ 362>:?8 324< 56E2:=D @7 E96 E6>A6C2EFC6[ C6=2E:G6 9F>:5:EJ[ H:?5 DA665 2?5 5:C64E:@?[ 2?5 2:C AC6DDFC6 6G6CJ `d 766E E9C@F89 :ED 7=:89E]k^Am
kAm%@86E96C[ 2== E96D6 >62DFC6>6?ED 96=A >6E6@C@=@8:DED k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]DA4]?@22]8@G^6IA6C^D@F?5:?8D^Qm:?E6CAC6E E96 2E>@DA96C6 @G6C9625k^2m 2?5 7665 :?E@ k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^8>2@]8D74]?2D2]8@G^7@C642DED^DJDE6>D^7A^@3D0:>A24E^Qm4@>AFE6C >@56=Dk^2m FD65 E@ 96=A 7@C642DE H62E96C 2C@F?5 E96 4@F?ECJ[ :?4=F5:?8 9FCC:42?6D]k^Am
k9cmwFCC:42?6 9F?E6CDk^9cm
kAmu@C k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]2@>=]?@22]8@G^9FCC:42?603=@8^D6G6?EJ\7:7E9\2??:G6CD2CJ\@7\7:CDE\9FCC:42?6\6J6\A6?6EC2E:@?^Qm>@C6 E92? g_ J62CDk^2m[ D4:6?E:DED 92G6 366? 7=J:?8 A=2?6D :?E@ 9FCC:42?6D E@ >62DFC6 6249 DE@C>’D DEC6?8E9 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^;@FC?2=D]2>6ED@4]@C8^G:6H^;@FC?2=D^H67@^bg^e^(pu\s\aa\_`_a]`]I>=Qm96=A 7@C642DEk^2m :ED A2E9 2?5 A@E6?E:2= 7@C 52>286]k^Am
kAmz?@H? 2D “wFCC:42?6 wF?E6CD[� E96D6 4C6HD 7C@> E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]c_bH8]27C4]27]>:=^p3@FE^u24E\$966ED^s:DA=2J^pCE:4=6^`hadah^dbC5\H62E96C\C64@??2:DD2?46\DBF25C@?\9FCC:42?6\9F?E6CD^Qm&]$] p:C u@C46 #6D6CG6k^2m 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]@>2@]?@22]8@G^2:C4C27E\@A6C2E:@?D^?@22\9FCC:42?6\9F?E6CDQm}~ppk^2m C@FE:?6=J 4@?5F4E C64@??2:DD2?46 >:DD:@?D E9C@F89@FE 9FCC:42?6 D62D@? FD:?8 2 G2C:6EJ @7 :?DECF>6?ED] $:>:=2C E@ H62E96C 32==@@?D[ E96D6 7=:89ED 2C6 >2<:?8 >62DFC6>6?ED E92E D2E6==:E6D 42?’E]k^Am
kAmwFCC:42?6 wF?E6CD k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^9FCC:42?6\9F?E6CD\7=J\E9C@F89\6IEC6>6\DE@C>D\E@\7@C642DE\:?E6?D:EJ\96C6D\H92E\92AA6?D\H96?\E96\A=2?6\A=F?86D\:?E@\E96\6J6H2==\`gfabcQmFD6 s@AA=6C C252C E@ 82F86 9@H E96 H:?5 :D 3=@H:?8 2?5 {:sp#k^2m E@ >62DFC6 E6>A6C2EFC6 2?5 9F>:5:EJ 492?86D] %96J 5C@A AC@36D E@ >62DFC6 E96 @462? E6>A6C2EFC6 5@H? D6G6C2= 9F?5C65 766E E@ E6== 9@H >F49 H2C> H2E6C >:89E 36 E96C6 E@ 7F6= E96 DE@C>]k^Am
kAm%96J 2=D@ C6=62D6 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]6@=]F42C]65F^4@?E6?E^H92E\5C@AD@?56Qma_ E@ b_ 5C@AD@?56Dk^2m[ >62DFC:?8 56G:46D H:E9 A2C249FE6D] pD E96 5C@AD@?56D 72== E9C@F89 E96 DE@C>[ E96J EC2?D>:E 52E2 23@FE E96 E6>A6C2EFC6[ 9F>:5:EJ[ H:?5 DA665 2?5 5:C64E:@? 2?5 2:C AC6DDFC6 6G6CJ `d 766E @C D@ 7C@> E96 A=2?6 E@ E96 @462?]k^Am
kAmsC@AD@?56D 7C@> wFCC:42?6 wF?E6C 7=:89ED 2C6 E96 @?=J H2J E@ 5:C64E=J >62DFC6 H92E :D @44FCC:?8 :?D:56 E96 DE@C>] p=E9@F89 D2E6==:E6D 2?5 C252CD 42? D66 :?D:56 9FCC:42?6D[ E96D6 2C6 :?5:C64E >62DFC6>6?ED E92E 5@ ?@E 92G6 E96 7:?6\D42=6 C6D@=FE:@? @7 5C@AD@?56 52E2]k^Am
kAm%92E 52E2 E6==D }2E:@?2= wFCC:42?6 r6?E6C 7@C642DE6CD 9@H :?E6?D6 E96 DE@C> :D 2?5 H96E96C E96 2E>@DA96C6 2C@F?5 E96 DE@C> :D 72G@C23=6 7@C DEC6?8E96?:?8] sC@AD@?56 52E2 2=D@ 96=AD 4@>AFE6C >@56=D 7@C642DE E96 EC24< 2?5 :?E6?D:EJ @7 DE@C>D 52JD :?E@ E96 7FEFC6]k^Am
kAm%H@ }~pp wFCC:42?6 wF?E6C 7=:89E 5:C64E@CD H6C6 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^J2=64=:>2E64@??64E:@?D]@C8^a_ad^_b^?@22\9FCC:42?6\9F?E6C\=2J@77D\E9C62E6?\E@\568C256\9FCC:42?6\7@C642DED^Qm=2:5 @77 :? u63CF2CJ a_adk^2m[ =62G:?8 @?=J D:I H96? `_ 2C6 AC676CC65] s:C64E@CD 2C6 E96 7=:89E >6E6@C@=@8:DED 23@2C5 6249 7=:89E H9@ @G6CD66 @A6C2E:@?D 2?5 6?DFC6 E96 A=2?6D DE2J 2H2J 7C@> E96 >@DE 52?86C@FD 4@?5:E:@?D]k^Am
kAmw2G:?8 76H6C 5:C64E@CD =:>:ED E96 ?F>36C @7 7=:89ED E92E 42? 36 D6?E @FE 5FC:?8 3FDJ E:>6D H96? wFCC:42?6 wF?E6CD 2C6 >@?:E@C:?8 >F=E:A=6 DE@C>D] p?5 E92E H@F=5 =:>:E E96 244FC2E6 52E2 E96 }2E:@?2= wFCC:42?6 r6?E6C H@F=5 92G6 7@C 7@C642DE:?8 DE@C>D]k^Am
k9cmtJ6D :? E96 D<Jk^9cm
kAm(62E96C D2E6==:E6D E92E >@?:E@C EC@A:42= DE@C>D 7C@> DA246 AC@G:56 4@?E:?F@FD G:6HD @7 6249 DE@C>’D EC24< 2?5 :?E6?D:EJ 492?86D] %96 6BF:A>6?E @? E96D6 D2E6==:E6D 2?5 D@7EH2C6 FD65 E@ 2?2=JK6 :E >2<6 :?4C62D:?8=J 244FC2E6 9FCC:42?6 7@C642DED A@DD:3=6] |F49 @7 E92E 6BF:A>6?E :D 56G6=@A65 3J 7656C2==J 7F?565 C6D62C496CD]k^Am
kAmu@C 6I2>A=6[ E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^4:]?@22]8@G^Qmr@@A6C2E:G6 x?DE:EFE6Dk^2m :? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^EC@A:4]DD64]H:D4]65F^Qm(:D4@?D:?k^2m 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^C2>>3a]4:C2]4@=@DE2E6]65F^C6D62C49^EC@A:42=\4J4=@?6D^Qmr@=@C25@k^2m 92G6 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?6D5:D]?@22]8@G^?6HD^?6D5:D\D4:6?E:DE\C646:G6\?@22D\AC6DE:8:@FD\52G:5\D\;@9?D@?\2H2C5Qm56G6=@A65 D@7EH2C6k^2m 2?5 >6E9@5D E92E 96=A >6E6@C@=@8:DED 36EE6C F?56CDE2?5 E96 4FCC6?E DE2E6 @7 EC@A:42= 4J4=@?6D 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^;@FC?2=D]2>6ED@4]@C8^G:6H^;@FC?2=D^H67@^bc^c^H27\5\`h\___f0`]I>=Qm7@C642DE 7FEFC6 :?E6?D:EJk^2m H96? 2:C4C27E C64@??2:DD2?46 :D?’E :>>65:2E6=J 2G2:=23=6]k^Am
kAmu@C642DE:?8 C2A:5 :?E6?D:7:42E:@? :D @?6 @7 E96 8C62E 492==6?86D 7@C 9FCC:42?6 D4:6?E:DED] xE’D E96 52?86C@FD D9:7E H96? 2 EC@A:42= 4J4=@?6’D H:?5 DA665D ;F>A 3J 2E =62DE bd >A9 Wde <:=@>6E6CD A6C 9@FCX :? ac 9@FCD]k^Am
kAmu@C 6I2>A=6[ :? a_`g[ k2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^5@:]@C8^`_]`_ah^a_a_yr_`ehehQmwFCC:42?6 |:4926=’D C2A:5 :?E6?D:7:42E:@?k^2m 42F89E E96 u=@C:52 !2?92?5=6 3J DFCAC:D6] %96 r2E68@CJ d DE@C> k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?46:]?@22]8@G^2446DD^3:==:@?D^54>:]A57Qm42FD65 3:==:@?D @7 5@==2CDk^2m :? 52>286 24C@DD E96 C68:@?[ :?4=F5:?8 2E %J?52== p:C u@C46 q2D6[ H96C6 D6G6C2= k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]>:=:E2CJ]4@>^5@53FKK^a_`g^`_^ac^D6?2E@C\2:C\7@C46\7:I\9FCC:42?6\52>2865\7\aaD\72DE]9E>=Qmu\aa $E62=E9 u:89E6CD H6C6 DE:== :? 92?82CDk^2m]k^Am
kAm&?56C E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]A@=:E:4@]4@>^?6HD^a_ad^_c^``^H9:E6\9@FD6\A=2?\8FED\?@22\4=:>2E6\C6D62C49\__agec_gQm7656C2= 3F586E AC@A@D2=k^2m 56E2:=D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]H9:E69@FD6]8@G^@>3^:?7@C>2E:@?\C6D@FC46D^3F586E^E96\AC6D:56?ED\7J\a_ae\5:D4C6E:@?2CJ\3F586E\C6BF6DE^QmC6=62D65 D@ 72Ck^2m[ :?4=F5:?8 2 5C27E @7 286?4:6D� 3F586E A=2?D >2C<65 FA 3J %CF>A’D ~77:46 @7 |2?286>6?E 2?5 qF586E[ <?@H? 2D E96 A2DD324<[ E96C6 :D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^Db]5@4F>6?E4=@F5]@C8^5@4F>6?ED^adghg`ga^?@22\A2DD324<]A57Qm?@ 7F?5:?8 7@C r@@A6C2E:G6 x?DE:EFE6Dk^2m] %96C6 :D 2=D@ ?@ 7F?5:?8 7@C 2:C4C27E C642A:E2=:K2E:@?] p k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]@>2@]?@22]8@G^D:E6D^5672F=E^7:=6D^a_aa\`a^a_aa0p:C4C27E0#642A:E2=:K2E:@?0!=2?0u:?2=]A57Qma_aa }~pp A=2?k^2m D@F89E E@ AFC492D6 FA E@ D:I ?6H 2:C4C27E E92E H@F=5 36 FD65 3J wFCC:42?6 wF?E6CD]k^Am
kAm%96 A2DD324< 3F586E 2=D@ 4FE 7F?5:?8 7@C D@>6 E649?@=@8J 7C@> 7FEFC6 D2E6==:E6D[ :?4=F5:?8 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]J@FEF36]4@>^H2E49nGl?8?fCAB2HdtQm=:89E?:?8 >2AA6CDk^2m E92E 2C6 FD65 :? 9FCC:42?6 :?E6?D:EJ 7@C642DE:?8 2?5 E@ H2C? 2:CA=2?6D @7 C:D<D]k^Am
kAm%C@A:42= DE@C>D 2?5 9FCC:42?6D 42? 92G6 56G2DE2E:?8 67764ED[ 2D k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?94]?@22]8@G^52E2^E4C^p{_ha_ac0w6=6?6]A57QmwFCC:42?6D w6=6?6k^2m 2?5 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^HHH]?94]?@22]8@G^52E2^E4C^p{`ca_ac0|:=E@?]A57Qm|:=E@?k^2m C6>:?565 E96 4@F?ECJ :? a_ac] %96D6 DE@C>D[ H9:=6 H6== 7@C642DE[ C6DF=E65 :? 3:==:@?D @7 5@==2CD @7 52>286 2?5 9F?5C65D @7 72E2=:E:6D]k^Am
kAm%96 &]$] 92D 366? k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^5@:]@C8^`_]`_fb^A?2D]`ha_gch``fQm724:?8 >@C6 :?E6?D6 DE@C>Dk^2m[ 2?5 E96 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^4@2DE]?@22]8@G^DE2E6D^72DE\724ED^64@?@>:4D\2?5\56>@8C2A9:4D]9E>=Qm4@2DE2= A@AF=2E:@?k^2m 2?5 G2=F6 @7 AC@A6CEJ :? 92C>’D H2J 2C6 8C@H:?8] pD 7:G6 7@C>6C 5:C64E@CD @7 E96 }2E:@?2= (62E96C $6CG:46 k2 9C67lQ9EEADi^^45?]E964@?G6CD2E:@?]4@>^DE2E:407:=6D^7:=6D^bfga^}($0ae!]A57n`fcecabaf_QmHC@E6 :? 2? @A6? =6EE6Ck^2m[ 4FEE:?8 7F?5:?8 2?5 DE277 7C@> }~pp’D H@C< E92E :D :>AC@G:?8 7@C642DE:?8 2?5 H2C?:?8D F=E:>2E6=J E9C62E6?D E@ =62G6 >@C6 =:G6D 2E C:D<]k^Am
kA 4=2DDlQA`QmkDA2? 4=2DDlQD`Qmk6>m%96 r@?G6CD2E:@? :D 2 ?@?AC@7:E[ :?56A6?56?E ?6HD @C82?:K2E:@? 3C:?8:?8 J@F 724ED 2?5 ECFDEH@CE9J 2?2=JD:D E@ 96=A J@F >2<6 D6?D6 @7 @FC 4@>A=6I H@C=5]k^6>mk^DA2?mk^Am
