The City of Flagstaff announced recently that the federal Bureau of Reclamation had begun developing the scope of work for the appraisal study preceding a feasibility study of the city鈥檚 Red Gap Ranch water project.
What exactly does that mean?
In the short term, not much. It鈥檚 only the very beginning of a lengthy and uncertain evaluation process.
The 8,500-acre Red Gap Ranch property is located about 40 miles east of Flagstaff, sandwiched between Interstate 40 and the southern edge of the Navajo Nation.
Flagstaff bought the property for $7.9 million in 2005, with plans to use groundwater under the site to bolster the city鈥檚 drinking water supply.
Getting that water to the city will ultimately require the construction of a pipeline.
Flagstaff鈥檚 current drinking water supplies are sufficient to meet projected demand for years to come. Red Gap Ranch is still regarded as a long-term hedge -- to ensure a hypothetical 100-year supply. The ranch is also a planned component of the Northeastern Arizona Indian Water Rights Settlement Act (NAIWRSA), under which the city鈥檚 pipeline would supply water to the Navajo and Hopi tribes.
The Bureau of Reclamation was established at the turn of the 20th century to assist Western states with water projects supporting economic development. Once a prolific builder of dams and reservoirs -- including the contentious Glen Canyon Dam -- the agency has become the nation鈥檚 largest water wholesaler and second-largest hydroelectric power producer.
In its current form, the agency鈥檚 mission is 鈥渢o manage, develop and protect water and related resources.鈥�
The Red Gap Ranch water delivery project could plausibly fall under the Bureau of Reclamation's聽purview. But what involvement it might actually have is yet to be determined, according to city attorney Sterling Solomon -- and might not even be determined by the appraisal or feasibility studies.
鈥淭he Bureau鈥檚 future role is unknown, but may depend on project partners, the level of federal interest in the Regional Project, funding sources (federal, state, private), among other considerations,鈥� Solomon stated. 鈥淭he Bureau鈥檚 future role could be described by these studies, but this is unknown.鈥�
The scope of work should be complete within about 90 days, according to Solomon. That sets the stage for an appraisal study, which, according to the Bureau鈥檚 , aims to identify the problem or needs driving a project, possible partners in the project area and potential solutions to the problem as well as likely obstacles. Completing the appraisal study will probably take about one year.
The appraisal study might lead the Bureau to issue a recommendation for a feasibility study -- though there is no guarantee the agency will proceed past the appraisal stage. During a , the Bureau evaluates multiple potential plans for a project, eventually either settling on a single recommended plan or a recommendation to take no action. That process could last an additional two to four years.
To sum it up: the Bureau of Reclamation is planning for a first study, which may or may not lead to a second study, which may or may not lead to the Bureau actually becoming a funding or construction partner in the city鈥檚 project. There might be more certainty once the first study is done in approximately a year, or the wait could take a few years after that.
Still, Solomon said the city anticipates the Bureau will 鈥渃onclude that a Regional Project from Red Gap Ranch is critically necessary for the city and the region,鈥� potentially endorsing the pipeline plan. Solomon did not offer any insight into what would happen if a different conclusion reached.聽
Broadly speaking, uncertainty seems to be the current theme of Red Gap Ranch.
The NAIWRSA, the 39-party legal agreement that would affirm the water rights of the Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe and San Juan Southern Paiute Tribe, is still awaiting congressional approval. Arizona鈥檚 federal representatives have reintroduced legislation to ratify the settlement in both the House and Senate this year. But over six weeks on, neither the House nor the Senate bill have passed out of committee.
Meanwhile, the City of Flagstaff remains embroiled in a lawsuit with Desert Mountain Energy, a company seeking to extract helium near the ranch. The city sued the company at the end of 2020, alleging the drilling activity might contaminate the underlying groundwater. (Desert Mountain denies that its plans would have any impact on the aquifer.)
The details of the case are complex, but most recently, the city petitioned the Arizona Supreme Court to review an appellate court鈥檚 ruling in favor of Desert Mountain.