Over the past several decades, climate change has begun reshaping Flagstaff. Droughts, storms and warming temperatures have plagued all of Arizona increasingly over the past few years, with unique effects on Flagstaff, its residents and its identity in the years to come.
From four seasons to the hiking trails within the city to its proximity to the Grand Canyon, the San Francisco Peaks and vast ponderosa pine forests, a safe and accessible nature is a central piece of the identity of the city. Climate change, however, could begin to threaten some of that stability.
Michele James, executive director of Friends of Flagstaff鈥檚 Future (F3), said drought and increased temperatures have caused a longer and more severe fire season, creating 鈥渇ire scars鈥� that can lead to major flooding in parts of Flagstaff.
鈥淚t kind of becomes really hard and slick when it's really hot flames,鈥� James said. 鈥淲hen it rains over that, it could just be one cloud that comes right over the area that's burned, and it dumps 2 inches in, you know, half an hour, it just floods.鈥�
One such fire scar caused severe flooding in multiple Flagstaff neighborhoods throughout the summer of 2021. While this did cause the city to start working on multiple flood mitigation projects, flooding and other severe events are symptoms of continuing change to northern Arizona鈥檚 climate.
According to the 2018 Climate Profile for the City of Flagstaff, average temperatures in Flagstaff have increased by approximately 2.2 degrees. While seasonal and daily maximum temperatures are remaining within yearly variance, daily low temperatures have been increasing, leading to warmer nights.
This leads to less snowfall in the winters, replaced by rain. Not only can this make floods more common, but it makes the winter season less consistent -- which can be detrimental to the winter tourism Flagstaff relies on for income and jobs.
James said people and organizations will have to adjust to the warming temperatures in various ways.
鈥淪nowbowl has kind of addressed that -- the drought we have and the warming temperatures -- by making their own snow,鈥� James said. 鈥淚 think it's really the common sense things that you would do if you lived in the Valley. If you lived in the Phoenix area, you wouldn't go hiking in the middle of the day.鈥�
As climate change worsens, residents of Arizona's desert cities like Phoenix and Tucson may begin looking northward for cooler places to live. According to James, many people are purchasing second homes in Flagstaff to get out of the heat as Phoenix reached a new record for consecutive number of days over 100 degrees this year.
This trend comes as Flagstaff has been facing a housing crisis for several years, with the city declaring a housing emergency in 2020. According to the Flagstaff Carbon Neutrality Plan, housing costs have risen by 119% while income has only risen by 16%.
Progressing climate change could mean more people from central and southern Arizona looking for housing in northern Arizona, including Flagstaff.
James said the number of people moving to the city because of climate change is small, for now.
鈥淚t's a really big issue ... there's a lot of unknowns, right? We know it's happening, but we don't really know how it's going to impact us,鈥� James said. 鈥淏ut we know it's happening, and we know we're going to be affected by it.鈥�
A known effect is the drier conditions creating increased risk of illness. F3鈥檚 Climate Adaptation and Resilience page describes an increased presence from mosquitos and other disease-carrying insects because of longer warm seasons.
Air-sensitive individuals, such as those with asthma, can also be disproportionately impacted. Increased dust from drier conditions and smoke from repeated wildfires and controlled burns pollute the air, requiring some to stay indoors or take extra precautions.
The city offers a program to place HEPA filters in the homes of individuals who request them. Such programs are helpful for mitigation as climate change continues affecting the city and its residents.
James said he thinks the city and its residents will be able to adapt to the coming changes.
鈥淲e can adapt how we live, so that we can handle the heat, and then adapting to we're using electricity and contributing less to the problem overall,鈥� she said.