Just about any way it鈥檚 measured, Flagstaff is in the midst of one of its driest winter stretches in history.
With just 0.19 inches of precipitation falling in December and January, Flagstaff ended up under the two months of the 2005-06 season鈥檚 0.24 inches for the driest start to the winter season.
As for snowfall, the 3.2 inches that fell in January after nothing arrived in December has made for the fourth-lowest recorded total for a start to winter.
Adding totals from October and November of 2024 doesn鈥檛 raise the snowfall season any higher, as the 2.7 inches from the end of fall only bring Flagstaff to 5.9 inches total. That remains one of just four seasons under 6 inches through the first four months, trailing the same three seasons that were lower to begin winter overall.
For the 1935-36 season, just 2.8 inches of snow fell through four months, and it all came in December and January following just trace amounts in the final two fall months. For the 1930-31 snow season, a total of 2.5 inches fell, with November contributing 1 inch before January鈥檚 1.5 inches brought the remainder.
The worst start to a snow season came in 2005-06 -- also the previous worst start for winter precipitation -- as 1.6 inches of snow fell in January for the only measurable total across four months.
"The worst winter season so far in terms of precipitation, unfortunately. I mean, we're nearing record temperatures," said聽Evan LaGuardia, Observation Program leader for the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Bellemont, on Tuesday. "Yesterday felt like a day in April. It's just the pattern that we are stuck in, and we just can't get out of it."
LaGuardia noted the conditions led to the NWS issuing a Red Flag Warning just two weeks ago near the end of January, and they would likely see more of the same in February should the conditions continue.
"If the fire weather conditions are there, we're going to put out Red Flag Warnings now. Technically, no, the calendar doesn't say fire season, but as people say, it's fire season all year round if you don't get precipitation,"聽LaGuardia said, noting the stems of some sunflowers from the fall bloom are still standing because they haven't been crushed under snow.
Flagstaff's lowest snowfall total came in the 1933-34 season, with a total of 11.2 inches between October and April. After 6 inches fell in November, just 5.2 additional inches fell in the final four months of that year. The calendar year of 1934 also ranks among the top 15 driest years in Flagstaff's history, with only 14.80 inches of precipitation recorded.
Two of those three driest starts never recovered through the remainder of the season and ranked just behind the 1933-34 season. The 1935-36 season finished as the second-lowest total snowfall at 16 inches, with 13.2 inches falling in February and March combined. The 1930-31 season was just behind as the third-lowest snowfall total with 18 inches total, as all of the remaining 15.5 inches showed up in February.
The worst historical start from 2005-06 extended into February, with no measurable snowfall for the fourth time in a five-month span, but ultimately recovered with 40 inches of snowfall primarily thanks to a three-day storm of 29.9 inches between March 10 and 12.
A similar three-day storm helped a slightly slower than average start a year ago, as Flagstaff sat at 36.8 inches of snow through Feb. 5, 2024, before a 36.1 inches fell between Feb. 6 and Feb. 8. The 14th-largest three-day snowstorm in Flagstaff鈥檚 history pushed last year back up above the normal value to that point in the season.
With Flagstaff nearly breaking daily highs for temperatures on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3 -- both coming one degree shy of the respective records of 62 and 64 degrees -- a similar early February snowstorm is not in the forecast for 2025. The current total of 5.9 inches through the first four months trails the normal total by 45.7 inches to this point in the season.
"Southern California, Arizona and western New Mexico, it's just been bone dry," LaGuardia said. "I really think it's this high pressure just off the Baja coast that's just been strong enough to nudge that jet stream up to the north and keep it there, allowing precipitation and storms to pretty much parade through the Great Basin and onto the West Coast and the Sierras. We're kind of stuck in this pattern and not seeing anything good on the horizon anytime soon."
As for precipitation, Flagstaff is 3.65 inches below its normal 7.27 inches since Oct. 1 and 2.11 inches behind the normal of 2.30 from Jan. 1 through Feb. 4.
According to the NWS forecast, temperatures for the remainder of the week will remain 7 to 12 degrees higher than normal before they drop down to the mid to high 40s on Monday and Tuesday.
The temperature outlook from the NWS appears to expect some of the same for much of February, as there鈥檚 a 55-65% chance of temperatures leaning toward above normal temperatures. Looking further ahead, see Flagstaff leaning toward about a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures and a 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation through April.