During Monday鈥檚 informational presentation to the Flagstaff City Council and Coconino County Board of Supervisors, county staff made it clear that the impacts of another fire on the nearby mountains would be disastrous for Flagstaff.
The presentation was focused on the possibility of a blaze on the south and western slopes of the San Francisco Peaks 鈥� areas that make up the Upper Rio De Flag watershed that drains through downtown Flagstaff. Engineering firm JE Fuller shared models of potential burn severity for a fire in the particular area, as well as models of potential post-fire flooding. While preliminary, the results of the models have been enough to catch the attention of area leadership.
鈥淚t鈥檚 ugly, folks,鈥� said Lucinda Andreani, director of the county flood control district. 鈥淭he gravity of how we manage this issue and the impact it鈥檚 going to have on Flagstaff over the long term is significant.鈥�
The modelling covered four different scenarios evaluating fire in three separate areas of the Upper Rio watershed, and a fourth worst-case scenario that evaluated a 21,500-acre fire across the entire watershed.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a big area to burn, but it鈥檚 really not,鈥� said Joe Loverich, project manager for JE Fuller.
For comparison, the 2022 Tunnel Fire burned about 19,000 acres, and a few months later the Pipeline Fire burned an additional 26,500 acres.
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Based on the predicted burn severity of this worst-case scenario, the resulting flooding from a 2-inch rain event on the burn scar would send a substantial amount of water through the heart of Flagstaff, 鈥渋nto the Rio, through downtown, across Lone Tree on over to the east side of town,鈥� Loverich said. 鈥淲e鈥檝e tracked our modeling all the way down to I-40.鈥�
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Loverich added: 鈥淚s this exactly what a fire is going to do? No. But it is a decent representation of what a fire could be in these areas.鈥�
Additionally, the county has begun the process of working with Northern Arizona University鈥檚 Economic Policy Institute to develop an estimate of how such a scenario would economically impact Flagstaff. The estimate will include costs such as remediation, lost property values, flood damages, tourism revenue losses, sales tax revenue losses and more.
Based on similar economic impact studies, such as the one produced to evaluate a fire and flooding event on Bill Williams Mountain, county forest restoration director Jay Smith estimated that the economic impact of a large fire on the Peaks would top a billion dollars.
鈥淧robably over $2 billion,鈥� Smith said.
Altogether, the risk associated with this worst-case scenario is enough that county leaders stressed the importance of robust proactive measures, especially in the realm of forest restoration to reduce fuel loads associated with high-severity wildfire.
鈥淣ow, what we understand 鈥� as we鈥檝e dealt with these fires multiple times now 鈥� is that the cost to be reactive to a fire and post-fire flooding costs sometimes as much as 25, 30 times more than if you鈥檙e just proactive and you go out and do the treatment,鈥� Smith said.
Proactive forest treatment on the Peaks will be a substantial undertaking involving steep-slope logging 鈥� which Smith estimated could take $60 million alone 鈥� as well as other forest treatments across the 21,500 acres.
鈥淚t could be a pretty high price tag,鈥� Smith said.
To that end, Coconino County has been very active in securing funding for both regional flood mitigation and forest restoration. Recently, it announced that the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management (ADFFM) agreed to allocate about $11 million to Coconino County 鈥� which would constitute the 25% match they needed to accept a $50 million injection from the Natural Resource Conservation Service.
It also announced that $42 million will be coming from the U.S. Forest Service for on-forest restoration work, and another $9 million from the Emergency Watershed Protection Programs will fund flood mitigation in Pipeline East flood corridors.
鈥淚t has been absolutely essential that we were able to get the federal funding that we got,鈥� said Patrice Horstman, chair of the county board of supervisors.
Though these funds will be spread out among multiple areas affected by fires and floods, Coconino County is prepared to devote at least $30 million to targeting the high-cost, steep-slope forest restoration on the San Fransisco Peaks.
鈥淏ut to reduce the overall risk of fire in that entire area and reduce the ultimate risk of post-wildfire flooding and impact to the economy, the entire area is going to need to be treated,鈥� Andreani said. 鈥淭his is going to take a partnership with the district, with the city and the Forest Service, and all the parties are going to have to come forward with funding.鈥�
According to Smith, Forest Service leadership has already expressed alignment with a partnership bent on treating the western slopes of the Peaks.
鈥淭hey are committed to focusing on the same area,鈥� Smith said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e meeting with them, getting the projects lined up so we can begin this work as soon as possible.鈥�
He added that the county was also looking to engage other partner organizations, such as the ADFFM, the National Forest Foundation, the Nature Conservancy, and even private partners such as Arizona Snowbowl.
鈥淭he mountain attracts people to Flagstaff, to our tourism industry,鈥� Smith said. 鈥淲e want to see [private industry] get involved.鈥�
Historically, attracting industry partners to forest restoration work has been challenging. It was one of the key reasons that the Forest Service had to completely restructure their Four Forest Restoration Initiative in 2021.
鈥淲e continue to struggle getting industry established where we can take all these forest products 鈥� the live wood and the dead wood that needs to come out to help protect these acres,鈥� Smith said.
He added that he has been working closely with a range of forestry professional and Northern Arizona University鈥檚 Ecological Restoration Institute to imagine new ways to use the wood resources harvested from forest restoration.
鈥淲e鈥檙e opening up every nut, every basket, everything we can to try to solve these problems,鈥� Smith said.
As problems with the current health of the forest are directly related to the century of fire suppression philosophy enacted by settler society in northern Arizona, Andreani noted that the county is also working on 鈥渂ringing back and reinvigorating鈥� Indigenous practices, such as controlled burns, that were employed to reduce fire threat in the region.
鈥淎lmost all the tribes employ these strategies and have that as part of their history,鈥� Andreani said. 鈥淎nd a lot of that鈥檚 been suppressed over the years.鈥�
Ultimately, the tone of Monday鈥檚 meeting reflected a reckoning with a fact that a new fire on the Peaks would be a substantial threat to Flagstaff鈥檚 future.
鈥淲e are all-in,鈥� said Flagstaff Mayor Becky Daggett. 鈥淲hatever it鈥檚 going to take to protect the community from this kind of catastrophic wildfire and resulting flooding.鈥�