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As rain and sleet continued to accelerate snowmelt across Flagstaff on Wednesday morning, the swollen Rio de Flag flushed across Herold Ranch Road, effectively cutting off a rural community of hundreds from the rest of the city.

Water rose about 3 feet over the road, and the Coconino County Sheriff’s Office posted an officer to dissuade would-be crossers and offer assistance if necessary. While most stayed on the muddy banks, a few travelers braved the ill-advised crossing. Of those who tried, not all were successful.

One resident by the name of Dobbs became stranded midstream when water flooded the engine of his SUV and stalled its movement during an attempted crossing. Fortunately, Dobbs was able to safely climb atop of the vehicle while friends in a large, lifted pickup truck backed into the floodwaters, secured a tow rope and successfully pulled Dobbs to the opposite shore.

Those less inclined to risk the passage found other ways around the floodwaters.

For Rylan Morton-Starner of Forestdale Farms, the raging Rio necessitated navigating a detour that would allow him to get his children to school. He described “hiking out� with his children to a road outside of the flood path where he had arranged a pickup with the children’s grandparent.

“It’s certainly a difficulty,� Morton-Starner said. “Not only do you have to find a way on foot, you have to have cars on either side to pick up and drop off.�

But getting his children to school was not Morton-Starner’s only concern. For the past couple days, Forestdale Farms has been watching floodwaters rise with trepidation, as their impediment to travel could spell delays in a scheduled delivery of microgreens to St. Mary’s Food Bank.

“The microgreens only have a few-day window to harvest,� Morton-Starner said. “So if the river doesn’t drop this week, we will have to figure out a way to get them to the food bank.�

While still high on Wednesday, the water did seem to be going down, said resident James Rinaldi, whose home near the Herold Ranch Road crossing gives him “front-row seats.� He explained that flooding over the road has been relatively common over the 17 years of his residence, but that floods do seem to be increasing in “severity and frequency� � in his estimation a result of the mixed influences of climate change, fire damage and upstream development.

On Wednesday, water had reached concrete walls normally well above the banks.

“In 17 years, I’ve never seen the water get to the walls,� Rinaldi said. “This is a new level.�

Rinaldi noted that Herold Ranch Road is regularly maintained by Coconino County, but he fears that a long-term improvement that will allow crossing during floods could be stalled by preferential treatment of other projects � especially the JW Powell expansion project.

“They hate it,� he said of resident’s feelings toward being stranded by floodwaters. “But this is really the only access that those folks have. For hundreds of people, this is the only way in and out.�

Sated soils

Flooding has impacted various communities with a range of severity elsewhere in Coconino County. According to county assistant director of emergency management Tim Carter, evacuated areas in Sedona were able to return to a “Set� status on Wednesday as floodwaters retreated. And despite localized reports of water overtopping roads and entering garages, such as in the Flagstaff community of Baderville, “Luckily, we haven't had, to our knowledge, any widespread interior impacts to homes,� Carter said.

In total, National Weather Service (NWS) measurements show that the last 48 hours brought roughly 2-3 inches of rain and variable amounts of snow ranging from about 2 to10 inches to the Flagstaff area. While accelerated snowmelt has certainly contributed to swollen streams in the area, that’s not the entire story, said NWS meteorologist Evan LaGuardia.

“The soils are extremely saturated,� LaGuardia said. “The ground can’t take anymore, so anything that’s going to fall is pretty much going to run right off.�

According to Arizona SNOTEL data, Wednesday saw also an uptick in existing snowpack throughout Arizona. Morning measurements reported that the Verde River Basin was sitting at nearly 300% of its median peak snowpack, and the San Francisco Peaks were at over 200% of their median peak snowpack. The measurements are even more extreme when taken as a percentage of the March 22 median � whereby the Verde River Basin snowpack is at 1,463% of its median and the San Francisco Peaks are 224% of their median.

“No doubt, this has been very significant storm,� LaGuardia said. “Three inches of liquid, and we just had another storm last week on top of this one. So it's definitely been a quite an active period across the Flagstaff area.�

LaGuardia added that the forecast will remain active through the rest of week and retain potential for more precipitation through April 1.

“But in terms of another storm like this, that doesn’t look likely at this point,� he said.